Vegetables market and its infrastructure, imitation model, scenario forecast, production and consumption of vegetable production in Russia.

The article is devoted to studying the alternatives of development of the Russian vegetables market from the point of view of change of the level and structure of production and consumption of vegetables. The main objectives of the research are to collect and analyze data of the Russian market of vegetable production, modeling and scenario forecasting vegetables market, a substantiation of directions of development of the market under study. The methodological basis of the research is developing the combined economic & mathematical imitation model that is based on creation of the differential equations system. As any qualitative and quantitative changes of market factors lead to shifts in consumer behavior and the structure of consumed products, the scenario variants of development of the situation at the Russian vegetables market was analyzed depending on foreign trade limitations, level of development of infrastructure, and pricing factors of the market. As a result of the research, the volume of consumption of various types of vegetables is predicted for the variants of the forecasts, as well as consequences of the change of the situation for the Russian vegetable sphere on the whole.

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    Appendix 1: Trends of factor variables

    production of cucumbers tons	x1 = 54.061t + 1,099
    production of tomatoes, tons	x2 = 89.687t + 1,990.2
    production of beet, tons	x3 = 27.693t + 785.4
    production of carrot, tons	x4 = 43.206t + 1,258.1
    production of cabbage, tons	x5 = 85.383t + 2,649.2
    production of bulb onion, tons	x6 = 97.397t + 1,134
    production of garlic, tons	x7 = 0.9848t + 232.01
    production of other vegetables, tons	x8 =64.765t + 916.97
    import of cucumbers, tons	x11 = 13,456t + 79,264
    import of tomatoes, tons	x12 = 40.960t + 416.074
    import of beet, tons	x13 = 1.613.6t + 48,203
    import of carrot, tons	x14 = 10,288t + 131,520
    import of cabbage, tons	x15 = 3,056.4t + 175,302
    import of bulb onion, tons	x16 = -30,730t + 597,273
    import of garlic, tons	x17 = 1,542.1t + 37,131
    import of other vegetables, tons	x18 = 25,641t + 165,634
    export of cucumbers, tons	x19 = 319.94t – 1,174.7
    export of tomatoes, tons	x20 = 19.159t – 7.8678
    export of beet, tons	x21 = 142.31t – 22.83
    export of carrot, tons	x22 = 372.12t – 1,274.5
    export of cabbage, tons	x23 = -131.53t + 1,508.8
    export of bulb onion, tons	x24 = 689.47t + 4,863.6
    export of garlic, tons	x25 = 21.269t – 33.317
    export of other vegetables, tons	x26 = 83,770t – 104.152
    import price of cucumbers, RUB/kg	x27 = 4.4987t + 5.3254
    import price of tomatoes, RUB/kg	x28 = 3.7192t + 10.991
    import price of beet, RUB/kg	x29 = 3.1472t + 0.9257
    import price of carrot, RUB/kg	x30 = 1.5634t + 4.947
    import price of cabbage, RUB/kg	x31 = 1.4777t + 4.2184
    import price of bulb onion	x32 = 1.7731t + 2.1287
    import price of garlic, RUB/kg	x33 = 5.9303t – 4.0923
    import price of other vegetables, RUB/kg	x34 = 3.3392 t + 15.203
    export price of cucumbers, RUB/kg	x35 = 2.4107t + 22.44
    export price of tomatoes, RUB/kg	x36= 1.0761t + 39.785
    export price of beet, RUB/kg	x37 = 2.0275t – 1.0969
    export price of carrot, RUB/kg	x38 = 0.6588t + 20.977
    export price of cabbage, RUB/kg	x39 = 1.4139t + 1.0507
    export price of bulb onion, RUB/kg	x40 = 1.5213t – 0.6736
    export price of garlic, RUB/kg	x41 = 3.9529t + 4.6282
    export price of other vegetables, RUB/kg	x42 = 0.8361 t + 7.5652
    domestic price of cucumbers, RUB/kg	x43 = 5.3267t + 44.999
    domestic price of tomatoes, RUB/kg	x44 = 5.3913t + 57.028
    domestic price of beet, RUB/kg	x45 = 1.4566t + 13.279
    domestic price of carrot, RUB/kg	x46= 2.0437t + 14.404
    domestic price of cabbage, RUB/kg	x47 = 1.3028t + 11.92
    domestic price of bulb onion, RUB/kg	x48 = 1.3762t + 13.887
    domestic price of garlic, RUB/kg	x49 = 10.195t + 34.401
    domestic price of other vegetables, RUB/kg	x50=4.0643t + 35.334
    number of population, million people	x51 = 0.1464t + 142.5
    income per capita, RUB	x52 = 3,001.3t – 4,062.8
    expenditures per capita, RUB	x53 = 1,124.7t + 3,242.4
    capacities of vegetables storage, thousand tons	x54 = 18.885t + 2,552.6
    area of greenhouses, hectares	x55 = 81.064t + 6,652.5